Are we witnessing the end of the rules-based international order?

When checks and balances are seen as obstacles to be bypassed, the world turns into a dangerous free zone that leaves weaker states’ safety guarantees from aggressive manoeuvres by stronger states uncertain. In an operation codenamed “Operation Absolute Resolve” on 3 January 2026, the United States invaded Venezuela, bombing its capital city and kidnapping its president, Nicolás Maduro. It is barely contested that the operation was a violation of international law and leaves the world dangerous for anyone who dares challenge powerful states.

What is the Rules-Based International Order (RBIO)?

The International Rules-Based Order (RBIO) is the post-WWII system of international laws, norms, and multilateral institutions (e.g., the UN, IMF, WTO) designed to foster global stability, peace, and cooperation through predictable rules, rather than pure power politics, promoting democracy, open markets, and human rights. Former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described it as a “system of laws, agreements, principles and institutions that the world came together to build after two world wars to manage relations between states, to prevent conflict, to uphold the rights of all people”. 

Threats to RBIO

The global order as conceived post-1945 has been well and truly torn asunder, we are returning to a pre-1945 world order of emperors guided by nations’ self-interests alone, fragrant disregard for human rights, and a willingness by stronger states to do anything to acquire natural resources including invading weaker nations. We are witnessing increasing challenges to the RBIO as states like the US, Russia and others push back on these norms in pursuit of expressed national security interests, justice for themselves, and a broader protectionist agenda.

Maduro not saintly

Nobody denies the fact Maduro was evil; the man presided over brutal government that killed, starved, tortured, imprisoned opponents, disregarded election results to stay in power, etc., but that is beside the point. The US behaviour represents a worrying trend by powerful states with imperialistic inclinations. A sitting head of state seized by a foreign power, taken out of his country, and placed into that power’s domestic legal system sets a dangerous precedent.

Although the Trump administration characterised the intervention as law enforcement backed by military force, there is no doubt it violates one of the most fundamental rules of international law, the prohibition on the use of force in international relations, enshrined in Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter.

Why the world should care

Venezuela is a warning of how quickly norms can break when those in power decide they no longer need to justify themselves to the electorate. Talk of the US running Venezuela and overseeing its oil industry is disturbing to say the least. This case is not just about Venezuela; the US has spoken about its Western hemisphere control interests and has been increasing loud about its need for Greenland for security reasons. We cannot pretend not to see what is happening, this is about the global drift towards strongman politics, and the way democratic guardrails can be treated as optional when they become inconvenient.

Attack on constraints

Trump excels in grievance politics. The “Trump grievance politics” leverages a pervasive sense of resentment and victimhood to mobilise his base. He frames an array of issues—from his personal legal challenges to broader cultural changes—as injustices perpetrated by “elites,” the “deep state,” or the “radical left” against “everyday Americans”. The Trump regime has made its pitch by attacking the ‘deep state’, delegitimising the status quo and checks and balances as constructs of the ‘left lunatics’ hence the US has lost the respect of the world. Attacking legitimate constitutional constraints is designed to persuade enough people to believe these constraints are illegitimate and, in the process, create permission to weaken them or get rid of them entirely. What we see of Trump’s MAGA government today:  

• A government that does not respect the role of watchdogs and dismisses their officials whenever they give warnings and advice.
• An incompetent cult leader misusing executive orders to bypass checks and balances.
• A paranoid movement that treats truth as a conspiracy and intentionally floods the public space with disinformation.
• A political organisation that thrives on grievance and keeps escalating the sense of threat and emergency, because fear makes checks and balances feel like an unaffordable luxury.

Conclusion

Global security relies in power built on a trustworthy system that is predictable and accountable to its citizens, not power exercised at the whims of powerful elites; it thrives on healthy disagreement not intimidation and bullying of the weak; trusts the strongest argument not loud lies. When the US, the largest democracy, behaves as if international law and accountability are obstacles to be bypassed, it normalises the idea that checks and balances are disposable. And courts, parliaments, regulators, and independent institutions do not exist to provide essential checks and balances, but to be pushed aside at the proclamation of the leader citing national interest as requiring it.